Thursday, June 23, 2016

NBA draft 2016: Player prediction and Breaking Down the Results of the Previous NBA Drafts




June 23 NBA draft if fast approaching. From 2008-2013 let us see how the draft picks make impact in the pro level. Who shines as a star player? who became a relevant piece for the team? who fails expectations? who are the biggest steals? The Draft is not a guarantee to help a team even if the pick is in lottery or in top 5. It is not solely the fault of the player being pick, it is also on the team on how they maximized the potential of the player. Some player is a product of the team's system.

Let us grade the draft picks giving 3 seasons as a measurement of their success. Let us see how Lottery picks made impact in the league. Who are those playoff teams steals a valuable players late on the first round. And second round are sometimes a filler in trade packages but sometimes there are hidden gems on that round.

From 2008-2013 this is the average result in my own assessment:
-83% of the No.1 picks became star players.
Inside the lottery:
-2.6 became a  franchise player.
-4.2 are starters or a great piece for a team.
-3.7 are role players.
-2.5 are bust picks.
-4.1 are late 1st round picks steals
-1.8 are 2nd round pick hidden gems.


Here are the latest mock draft from different sites:


Here are my predictions on where these players will be after 3 years:
Lottery:
* 1#: Ben Simmons

* Franchise player(s):
-Brandon Ingram
-Skal Labissiere
-Marquese Chriss

*starter(s):
-Kris Dunn
-Jaylen Brown
-Jamal Murray

*role player(s):
-Buddy Hield
-Domantas Sabonis

* warmer(s):
-Dragan Brender
-Dayonta Davis
-Kurkan Korkmaz
-Henry Ellenson
-Malik Beasley

*late 1st rnd steal(s):
-Thon Maker
-Demetrius Jackson

* 2nd rnd steal(s):
-Caris LeVert

*comment below on who do you think will be the Franchise Players, Starters, Role players, Bust and the steals.

Let's take a look at the stats of the players drafted from 2008-2013:

2013



Lottery picks: 
* 1# Anthony Bennett
* Franchise player(s):
Giannis Antetokoumpo

*starter(s): 
Victor Oladipo
Otto Porter
Nerlens Noel
Kentavious Caaldwell-Pope
CJ McCollum
Michael Carter-Williams
Steven Adams

*role player(s):
Cody Zeller
Trey Burke
Alex Len
Ben McLemore
Kelly Olynyk
Shabazz Muhammad

* warmer(s):
n/a

*late 1st rnd steal(s):
Dennis Schroder
Gorgui Dieng
Rudy Gobert

* 2nd rnd steal(s):
n/a
================

2012


Lottery:

* 1# Anthony Davis 20114-15 season 24.4ppg 10.2rpg 53%fg

* Franchise player:
-Lillard 6th pick, rookie of the year. 25.1ppg 6.8apg 2015-16 season.
-Andre Drummond 9th pick 16.2ppg 14.8rpg 1.6blk 2015-16 season
-Bradley Beal career 16ppg 3.7rpg 42.6%fg

*starter(s):
-Micheal Kidd Gilchrist career 9.1ppg 6.1rpg 46.7%fg
-Harrison Barnes career 10.1ppg 4.6rpg

*role player(s):
-Dion Waiters career 12.8ppg/ 9.8ppg 2015-16 season
-Terrence Ross career 9.3ppg 41.9%fg
-Austin Rivers career 7.4ppg 2apg 40%fg 21.1min/gm
-Mayers Leonard career 5.8ppg 4.1rpg
-John Henson career 7.9ppg 5.2rpg 1.6bpg 18min/gm
-Moe Harkless career 6.7ppg 3.5rpg
-Jeremy Lamb 12th pick career 7.5ppg 2.6rpg 16.3min/gm

* bust/warmer(s):
-Thomas Robinson 5th pick 5 teams, 4.9ppg 4.8rpg 13.44min/gm
-Kendall Marshall 13th pick, 4 teams played, 5.0ppg 4.9apg 39.9f%

late 1st rnd steal(s):
-Jared Sullinger career 11.1ppg 7.7rpg
-Evan Fournier 15.4ppg 2.8rpg 46%fg 40%3pt 2015-16 season

2nd rnd steal(s):
-Draymond Green 14ppg 9.5rpg 49%fg 2015-16 season
-Jae Crowder 14.2ppg 5.1rpg 44%fg 2015-16 season.
-Khris Middleton 18.2ppg 4.2apg 39.6%3pt 2015-16 season.


========

2011



Lottery:
* 1# Kyrie Irving career 20.8ppg 3.4rpg 5.5apg 45.2%fg 37.8%3pts

* Franchise player(s):
-Kemba Walker season 2015-16 20.9ppg 4.4rpg 5.2apg 42.7%fg
-Klay Thompson season 2015-16 22.1ppg 3.8rpg 47%fg 42.5%3pts

*starter(s):
-Enes Kanter career 10.7ppg 6.7rpg 52.6%fg
-Tristan Thompson career 9.7ppg 8.5rpg 50.2%fg
-Jonas Valanciunas career 11.3ppg 8.2rpg 1.1bpg 26min/gm
-Brandon Knight season 2015-16 19.6ppg 5.1apg 3.9rpg 41.5%fg
-Alec Burks career 10.6ppg 2.9rpg 1.9apg
-Markieff Morris season 2014-15 15ppg 6.2rpg 46.5%fg
-Marcus Morris

*role player(s):
-Bismack Biyombo season 2015-16 5.5ppg 8rpg 1.6bpg 22min/gm

* bust/warmer(s):
-Derrick Williams #2 pick, career 9.3ppg 4.2rpg 43fg% 21min/gm
-Jan Vesely #6 pick career 3.7ppg 3.5rpg 0.6apg 15min/gm
-Jimmer Fredette #10 pick, 6ppg, 1.4apg, 41%fg 13min/gm

late 1st rnd steal(s):
-Kawhi Leonard season 2015-16 21.2ppg 6.8rpg 2.6apg 1.8spg 50.6%fg
-Nikola Vucevic career 14.5ppg 9.8rpg 1.9apg 0.9bpg
-Tobias Harris career 13.2ppg 5.8rpg 46.5%fg 32.5%3pts
-Kenneth Faried career 12.3ppg 8.7rpg 54%fg
-Nikola Mirotic career 10.9ppg 5.2rpg 40%fg 35%3pts
-Reggie Jackson season 2015-16 18.8ppg 3.2rpg 6.2apg 43%fg
-Jimmy Butler season 2015-16 20.9ppg 5.3rpg 4.8apg 45%fg

2nd rnd steal(s):
-Chandler Parsons career 14.3ppg 5.1rpg 3apg 1spg 47.4%fg
-Isaiah Thomas career 17.1ppg 5apg, 22.2ppg 6.2apg season 2015-16

=========

2010



Lottery:
* 1# John Wall career 18ppg 4.5rpg 9apg 1.7spg 42.9%fg

* Franchise player(s):
-DeMarcus Cousins career 20.2ppg 10.8rpg 1.4spg 46%fg
-Gordon Hayward season 2015-16 19.7ppg 5rpg 3.7apg 1.2spg 43%fg 36%3pts
-Paul George career 16.9ppg 6.2rpg 3.1apg 42.5%fg

*starter(s):
-Derick Favors 2015-16 16.4ppg 8.1rpg 1.5apg 1.5bpg 51.2%fg
-Greg Monroe career 14.5ppg 9.1rpg 2.3apg
-Larry Sanders season 2012-13 9.8ppg 9.5rpg 2.8bpg
-Evan Turner career 10.7ppg 43.2%fg, 17.4ppg 6rpg season 2013-14

*role player(s):
-Al-Farouq Aminu  season 2015-16 10.2ppg 6.1rpg 1.7apg 41.6%fg
-Patrick Patterson career 8ppg 4.7rpg 46.7%fg 36.7%3pts

*bust/warmer(s):
-Wesley Johnson 4th pick career 8.2ppg 3.4rpg 40.8%FG 24min/gm
-Ekpe Udoh career 4ppg 3.2rpg 1.2bpg 42.9%fg
-Cole Aldrich
-Xavier Henry career 5.7ppg 1.9rpg 40%fg
-Ed Davis career 7.1ppg 6.5rpg 1bpg 56.4%fg 21min/gm

*late 1st rnd steal(s):
-Eric Bledsoe season 15-16 20.4ppg 6.1apg 45.3%fg
-Avery Bradley 15.2ppg 1.5spg season 2015-16

* 2nd rnd steal(s):
-Hassan Whiteside season 2015-16 14.2ppg 11.8rpg 3.7bpg 29min/gm
-Lance Stephenson season 2013-14 13.8ppg 7.2rpg 4.6apg 49.1%FG

=======

2009


Lottery:
* 1# Blake Griffin career 21.5ppg 9.6rpg 4.0apg 52%fg

* Franchise player(s):
-James Harden career 21.1ppg 4.9apg 4.6rpg 44%fg 36%3pts
-Stephen Curry season 2015-16 30.1ppg 5.4rpg 6.7apg
-DeMar DeRozan season 2015-16 23.5ppg, 4.5rpg 4apg 44.6
-Tyreke Evans career 16.7ppg 4.9rpg 5.3apg 44.6%fg

*starter(s):
-Ricky Rubio
-Brandon Jennings career 15.5ppg 3.1rpg 5.9apg 39%fg

*role player(s):
-Jordan Hill career 8ppg 5.9rpg 49.7%fg 19min/gm
-Gerald Henderson career 11.5ppg 3.3rpg 44.2%fg
-Tyler Hansbrough #13th pick career 6.7ppg 4.2rpg 43.9%fg 16.53min/gm

* warmer(s):
-Hasheem Thabeet career 2.2ppg 2.7rpg 0.8bpg 10min/gm
-Jonny Flynn career 9.2ppg 1.9rpg 3.9apg 22min/gm
-Terrence Williams career 7.1ppg 3.6rpg 2.4apg 19min/gm
-Earl Clark career 4.4ppg 3rpg 13min/gm

*late 1st rnd steal(s):
-Jrue Holiday career 14.1ppg 3.5rpg 6.1apg
-Ty Lawson season 2013-14 17.6ppg 3.5rpg 9.6apg
-Jeff Teague season 2013-14 16.5ppg 2.6rpg 6.7apg
-Darren Collison career 12.6ppg 4.9apg 46.8%fg
-Taj Gibson career 9.2ppg 6.3rpg 1.3bpg 49.1%fg 24min/gm
-DeMarre Carroll season 2014-15 12ppg 5.3rpg 1.3spg


* 2nd rnd steal(s):
-Marcus Thorton career 12.3ppg 42%fg 35%3pts season 2011-12 18.7ppg 43%fg
-Danny Green career 9.1ppg 3.4rpg 42.8%fg 40.3%3pts

==

2008


Lottery:
* 1# Derrick Rose career 19.7ppg 6.2apg 44.8%fg

* Franchise player(s):
-Russell Westbrook career 21.5ppg 5.6rpg 7.6apg 43.5%fg
-Kevin Love season 2013-14 26.1ppg 12.5rpg 4.4apg 45%fg 37%3pts
-Brook Lopez career 18.3ppg 7.4rpg 1.7bpg

*starter(s):
-Michael Beasley career 13ppg 4.8rpg 45%fg
-OJ Mayo career 13.8ppg 3.1rpg 2.9apg 42.9%fg
-Danilo Gallinari career 14.9ppg 4.6rpg 1.9apg 41%fg 36%3pts
-Eric Gordon career 16.6ppg 2.5rpg 3.3apg 43.5%fg

*role player(s):
-DJ Augustin career 9.8ppg 1.8rpg 4apg 40%fg 37.4%3pts
-Jerryd Bayless career 8.5ppg 2.1rpg 2.9apg 41.5%fg 36.5%3pts
-Brandon Rush career 7ppg 3rpg 1apg 43%fg 21min/gm
-Jason Thompson career 8.9ppg 6.6rpg 1.1apg 25min/gm

* warmer(s):
-Joe Alexander career 4.2ppg 1.8rpg 41%fg
-Anthony Randolph 7.1ppg 4.3rpg 45%fg 15min/gm

*late 1st rnd steal(s):
-Robin Lopez career 8.5ppg 5.4rpg 1.2bpg 22min/gm
-Ryan Anderson season 2013-14 19.8ppg 6.5rpg43.8%fg 40.9%3pts
-Serge Ibaka season 2013-14 15.1ppg 8.8rpg 2.7bpg 5.3%fg
-Nicolas Batum career 11.7ppg 5.2rpg 5.8apg 44.2%fg 36%3pts
-George Hill career 11.3ppg 3.2rpg 3.3apg 45%fg 37.6%3pts

* 2nd rnd steal(s):
-DeAndre Jordan season 2014-15 11.5ppg 15rpg 2.2bpg
-Goran Dragic season 2013-14 20.3ppg 3.2rpg 5.9apg career 47.1%fg 35%3pts


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